‘Uncertain times, unsettled lives’

This post by futurist, Keith Coats, was shared by Tomorrow Today Global.  Sign up for their newsletter. it is well worth it.
TL:DR?  At least, read the last two paragraphs.

In September the United Nations Development Program published their ‘Human Development Report’ which described the state of play as being one of a ‘nagging sense that whatever control we have over our lives is slipping away, that the norms and institutions that we used to rely on for stability and prosperity are not up to the task of today’s uncertainty complex’. It went on to say that ‘for many, getting from point A to point B in their lives and in their communities feels unclear, unsure, hard – harder still when persistent inequalities, polarisation, and demagoguery make it difficult to agree on what point B even is and to get moving’.

The tagline of this astute commentary? ‘Uncertain times, unsettled lives’.

Four words that capture the essence of a year that started with the hope of emerging from the grip of the pandemic and is ending with two major nations frozen in an exhausting and senseless conflict. A conflict that has rekindled scenes reminiscent of WW2 with the liberation of a European city (Kherson) – whoever would have thought that we would see such images in 2022! It is a conflict that has had both far reaching consequences (the disruption to the global food supply chain) and one that invokes the unthinkable, the threat of deploying nuclear weaponry.

Author and activist, Arundhati Roy, said that historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew. Prior to the pandemic, we seemed to believe that bulletproof strategic plans would be enough to see us through any disruption and illuminate our pathway into the future. The pandemic stripped that assumption bare and revealed our best laid plans for what they were: defenceless barricades against the irrepressible incoming tide. I am reminded of the 19th-century English poet, Alfred Edward Houseman, who wrote, ‘what shall I build or write / Against the fall of night / Shall it be Troy or Rome / I fence against the foam / Or my own name to stand / Before I depart for aye’. It was President Eisenhower who, drawing on his military background, understood the foolishness of reliance on plans when faced with uncertainty and unpredictability: “Plans are foolish, but planning is essential” was his provocation. As any military person knows, at first contact the best intended plans go out the window.

So, the pandemic forced on us a short-sighted focus, one imbued with a sharp sense of urgency on ‘sense-making’ – What has just happened? What is it that we need to do now? This sense-making will rumble on into the foreseeable future as we continue, with the vantage of hindsight, to make sense of the time from which we are emerging. For example, we are yet to appreciate the full extent of the mark it has left on a generation whose critical development period intersected with the peak of the pandemic. During COVID-19, more than one billion students lost an estimated six to twelve months of learning. In previous pandemics, such as the 1918 flu-pandemic, disrupted schooling, for those between fourteen and seventeen directly correlated to lower wages throughout their lives. A World Economic Forum report has described the pandemic as an ‘economic wrecking ball, with intergenerational consequences’. It will also be looked back on as the time that our understanding of how ‘work works’ was irrevocably changed.

2022 has seen us embark on the low foothills of such sense-making. We now find ourselves in territory signposted everywhere we dare to look, with signage that urges us to ‘rethink’ and ‘reimagine’ pretty much everything – ourselves, our work, our world. It is likely to be a limited-time only invitation but if there is to be a silver lining to the darkness that was the pandemic, this is it! In the midst of the prevailing brittleness, anxiety, and incomprehension, there is hope offered through the extended invitation to rethink and reimagine.

[….] Let me sign off by dabbling with Greek mythology. Proteus was the son of Poseidon, the god of the sea (who was also the overseer of water in general, earthquakes, and horses…quite a portfolio that!). Our friend Proteus had two very cool superpowers: Firstly, he knew the truth about the past, the present, and the future [….] But (there is always a ‘but’ isn’t there!), to get that truth, you had to defeat Proteus in battle and that brought into play his second superpower: He could shift shape at will. He could transform himself into a mountain, a lion, a wave, a fire…anything really and so you can instantly appreciate just how formidable that made him!

So why this foray into Greek myth?  Well, I think that organisations should stop always trying to specifically anticipate what is around the corner (just accept that there is some disruption lurking there) and instead, work on building the capacity to ‘shift-shape’ instantaneously. To be like Proteus. What might this look like for you and your organisation? If you see this as a quest – and following a quest is nothing more or less than being an asker of questions – then what are the questions you should be asking but aren’t when it comes to building this kind of adaptability?

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

Keith Coats is a founding partner of TomorrowToday Global and leadership specialist. He is now based in Cape Town, South Africa having relocated from London towards the end of 2021. Keith works with blue chips companies and in multiple business school leadership programmes worldwide helping senior leaders prepare today for the challenges and threats of tomorrow…and sometimes, the ‘day after tomorrow’. In 2022 Keith’s travel has included working throughout the UK, the USA, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Germany, Switzerland, Singapore, and of course, South Africa.